Nasdaq 100 +3.73% last week to a record high of 23,611.27 to 6,340.00 US yields higher: 10-year +6.1 bps last week to 4.286%Gold up +1.07% last week to $3,398.41 an ounceEUR +0.45% last week to $1.1641What to look out for today
Companies reporting on Monday, 11th August: Barrick Mining, AMC Entertainment
Key data to move markets today
EU: Italian CPI.
US Stock Indices
Dow Jones Industrial Average +0.47%.
Nasdaq 100 +0.95%.
S&P 500 +0.78%, with 8 of the 11 sectors of the S&P 500 up.
US stocks advanced on Friday, ending a week marked by significant tariff news, but limited market volatility. The S&P 500 rose by +0.78%. Eight of the eleven sectors within the index posted gains. The Nasdaq Composite climbed +0.98%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average added +0.47%, or 207 points.
For the week, the Dow Industrials saw an increase of +1.35%. The Nasdaq Composite, which reached a new record high on Friday, gained +3.87% over the past five sessions as a rally in big tech drove the Nasdaq 100 to all-time highs. The S&P 500 finished the day just below a record high, advancing +2.43% for the week.
According to LSEG I/B/E/S data, y/o/y earnings growth for the S&P 500 in Q2 is projected to be +13.2%. This number jumps to 14.8% when excluding the Energy sector. Of the 452 companies in the S&P 500 that have reported earnings to date for Q2 2025, 80.3% have reported earnings above analyst estimates, with 78.9% of companies reporting revenues exceeding analyst expectations. The y/o/y revenue growth is projected to be 6.2% in Q2, increasing to 7.4% when excluding the Energy sector.
Information Technology, at 94.1%, is the sector with most companies reporting above estimates, while Energy, with a surprise factor of 14.9%, is the sector that’s beaten earnings expectations by the highest surprise factor. Within Materials, 48.0% of companies have reported above estimates, and Real Estate at -0.6% is the sector with the lowest surprise factor. The S&P 500 surprise factor is 8.8%. The forward four-quarter price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) for the S&P 500 sits at 22.4x.
In corporate news, Meta Platforms has reportedly chosen Pacific Investment Management and Blue Owl Capital to lead a $29 billion financing initiative. The capital is designated for a data centre expansion in rural Louisiana, a project that highlights the accelerating demand for artificial intelligence infrastructure.
In a move to advance its $500 billion Stargate data centre project with OpenAI and Oracle, SoftBank Group has acquired Foxconn Technology Group's electric vehicle plant in Ohio.
Under Armour's turnaround efforts have faced a setback as the company issued a lower-than-expected sales and profit forecast for the current quarter.
Gilead Sciences raised its full-year outlook, citing strong second-quarter sales of its HIV drugs that led to revenue and earnings modestly surpassing analyst expectations.
Wendy’s revised its full-year sales guidance downward after reporting a larger-than-expected quarterly decline. The company pointed to ongoing economic pressures that are impacting its US business.
S&P 500 Best performing sector
Information Technology +1.22%, with Gen Digital +7.71%, Micron Technology +6.28%, and Apple +4.24%.
S&P 500 Worst performing sector
Utilities -0.45%, with Edison International -2.13%, Vistra -1.69%, and CMS Energy -1.41%.
Mega Caps
Alphabet +2.47%, Amazon -0.20%, Apple +4.24%, Meta Platforms +0.98%, Microsoft +0.23%, Nvidia +1.09%, and Tesla +2.30%.
Information Technology
Best performer: Gen Digital +7.71%.
Worst performer: GoDaddy -11.25%.
Materials and Mining
Best performer: Albemarle +7.74%
Worst performer: CF Industries Holdings -2.39%.
European Stock Indicest
CAC 40 +0.44%.
DAX -0.12%.
FTSE 100 -0.06%.
Commodities
Gold spot +0.03% to $3,398.41 an ounce.
Silver spot +0.04% to $38.33 an ounce.
West Texas Intermediate -0.74% to $63.35 a barrel.
Brent crude -0.35% to $66.12 a barrel.
US gold futures pulled back from their record highs on Friday. This followed reports that the White House intends to issue an executive order to clarify the nation's position on gold bar tariffs.
It comes after a ruling was published on the US Customs and Border Protection service's website, which suggested that the most commonly traded gold bullion bars in the US could be subject to country-specific import tariffs.
Despite the volatility in futures, spot gold prices remained stable at $3,398.41 per ounce, marking a weekly increase of +1.07%. The spread between US gold futures and spot prices widened to $57, a decrease from the session's peak of over $100.
Analysts noted that, should the tariff be implemented, the premium between Comex futures and London futures is expected to increase. This, in turn, would create new arbitrage opportunities among alternative refinery hubs.
CBP ruling on gold tariffs prompts White House intervention. The White House is preparing to clarify what an official referred to as ‘misinformation’ concerning import tariffs on gold bars. This move comes amid market uncertainty that has led some industry participants to halt bullion deliveries to the US.
The confusion stems from a ruling posted on Friday in the US Customs and Border Protection (CBP) service's website. The ruling suggests that the most widely traded gold bars in the US, the 1 kg and 100 troy ounce bullion bars, could be subjected to country-specific import tariffs, a decision that has the potential to disrupt the metal’s global supply chains.
A White House official informed Reuters on Friday that an executive order will be issued ‘in the near future’ to clarify the misinformation regarding tariffs on gold bars and other specialty products. The CBP ruling specifically mentions cast gold bars from Switzerland, which serves as the world's largest hub for bullion refining and transit. These bars are now subject to a 39% US import tariff.
The CBP stated that the appropriate HS customs code for 1 kg and 100 troy ounce bullion bars is 7108.13.5500, not 7108.12.10. However, only the latter code was included in the list of products exempt from country-specific import tariffs issued in April.
The Swiss Association of Precious Metals Manufacturers and Traders (ASFCMP) released a statement noting that this clarification would apply to any country delivering these specific bars to the US. Other than Switzerland, the global gold industry also includes players such as Britain, which hosts the world's largest over-the-counter gold trading hub, and major mining nations like South Africa and Canada.
Oil prices declined on Friday as markets await a meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin and US President Donald Trump. Oil prices recorded their steepest weekly losses since late June. This may be attributed to a weakened economic outlook caused by new tariffs.
Brent crude futures closed the session down 23 cents, or -0.35%, settling at $66.12 a barrel. Concurrently, WTI crude futures fell by -0.74% to $63.35. For the week, Brent crude declined by -4.90%, while WTI finished -5.79% lower than the previous Friday's close.
Early in the day, US crude prices had fallen by more than 1% after a Bloomberg news report suggested Washington and Moscow were seeking a deal to end the war in Ukraine. The report, citing individuals familiar with the situation, stated that US and Russian officials are preparing for a potential summit between Trump and Putin on Friday to reach an agreement on the occupied territories in Ukraine.
The prospect of a diplomatic resolution to the conflict in Ukraine has raised expectations that sanctions against Russia could be eased. This comes amid rising trade tensions between Trump and key buyers of Russian oil. Last week, the US President threatened to impose higher tariffs on India for its continued purchase of Russian oil and warned that China, the largest buyer of Russian crude, could face similar tariffs.
The implementation of higher US tariffs on a range of imported goods heightened concerns about global economic activity and its potential impact on crude oil demand.
Baker Hughes report. Last week, for the third consecutive week, US energy firms reduced the number of operational oil and natural gas rigs, according to a report from energy services firm Baker Hughes on Friday.
The combined oil and gas rig count, which serves as an early indicator of future production, decreased by one to 539 during the week ending 8th August. Baker Hughes detailed that while oil rigs increased by one to 411, gas rigs declined by one to 123, and miscellaneous rigs also fell by one to five.
The most significant changes were seen in key production regions. In Texas, the nation's leading oil and gas-producing state, the rig count dropped by two to 243, marking its lowest level since October 2021. Similarly, the rig count in the Permian Basin—the largest US oil-producing shale formation—fell by three to 256, the lowest since October 2021. The Eagle Ford shale in South Texas also decreased, with its rig count falling by one to 38, the lowest since October 2021.
Note: As of 5 pm EDT 8 August 2025
Currencies
EUR -0.19% to $1.1641.
GBP -0.01% to $1.3436.
Bitcoin -0.35% to $116,961.80.
Ethereum +4.24% to $4,039.78.
On Friday, with no major news to drive market direction, the dollar index rose by +0.19% to 98.26. However, it was still down -0.49% for the week as weakening economic data has increased interest rate cuts expectations for this year.
The dollar's fall began with the previous week’s July nonfarm payroll report, which revealed that employers added fewer jobs than expected. Additionally, job gains from previous months were sharply revised downwards. Other indicators of a slowing economy include softening housing market and services sector data. The next significant US economic release, consumer price data (CPI) for July, is scheduled for tomorrow.
The euro was -0.19% on Friday to $1.1641 but still managed a +0.45% increase for the week.
Sterling edged down -0.01% to $1.3436 on Friday after reaching a two-week high of $1.3458 earlier in the session. The narrow 5-4 vote by the BoE MPC to cut interest rates last Thursday suggests that the BoE will be more cautious about further cuts ahead. The pound finished the week +1.19%.
The dollar strengthened by +0.46% to ¥147.72, leading to a weekly gain of +0.35%. The BoJ's July meeting summary showed policymakers debated the likelihood of resuming interest rate increases. One official signalled the possibility of a hike this year, which has heightened expectations for a near-term rise in borrowing costs.
Fixed Income
US 10-year Treasury +2.7 basis points to 4.286%.
German 10-year bund +5.7 basis points to 2.690%.
UK 10-year gilt +5.4 basis points to 4.604%.
US Treasury yields rose on Friday, with the 10-year note registering its first weekly gain in three weeks. This followed a series of lackluster auctions and occurred as markets looked ahead to this week's inflation data.
Yields were volatile throughout last week, initially dropping in response to data indicating dismal growth in the US labour market. However, a separate report on the services sector indicated a potential rekindling of inflationary pressures, causing yields to turn higher. The momentum for higher yields was supported by weak demand for the Treasury's auctions of $125 billion in 3-year notes, 10-year notes, and 30-year bonds.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury note was +2.7 bps to 4.286% on Friday, resulting in a weekly gain of +6.1 bps — its most significant since early July. The 30-year bond yield was +4.9 bps to 4.857%, marking a weekly increase of +2.2 bps after two consecutive weeks of declines.
The two-year US Treasury yield, which is highly sensitive to interest rate expectations, was +3.3 bps to 3.769%, for a weekly gain of +7.1 bps, its largest since the week ending 3rd July.
St Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem stated on Friday that the Fed's inflation and employment goals both face risks. He noted that policymakers must weigh which threat is more serious when deciding whether it is appropriate to cut interest rates.
Fed funds futures traders are now pricing in a 88.4% probability of a rate cut in September, up from 80.3% last week, according to CME Group's FedWatch Tool. Traders are currently anticipating 57.6 bps of cuts by year-end, lower than the 58.1 bps expected last week.
Across the Atlantic, the German two-year government bond yield recorded a weekly increase as traders unwound rate-cut expectations that had surged following the prior week's weaker-than-expected US jobs data.
Germany's 10-year yield was +1.1 bps for the week, climbing +5.7 bps on Friday alone to reach 2.690%. The policy-sensitive two-year German yield recorded a weekly increase of +5.4 bps, trading +3.5 bps higher on the day at 1.966%. At the longer end, the 30-year German yield was +6.7 bps on Friday to 3.206%, marking a weekly increase of +1.7 bps.
According to euro short-term rate (ESTR) forwards, the market now implies a 75% probability of a 25 bps rate cut by March 2026, a reduction from the full pricing of a cut that occurred after the US jobs data release. However, traders also foresee a strong possibility of a rate hike by December 2026, with the deposit rate projected at 1.92%. The current deposit rate stands at 2.00%.
Italy's 10-year government bond yield was +4.8 bps on Friday to 3.482%, although -3.6 bps for the week. The yield spread between Italian and German bonds—a key market indicator of the risk premium for holding EU periphery debt—narrowed to a fresh 15-year low of 79.2 bps, 4.7 bps lower than the previous week.
Note: As of 5 pm EDT 8 August 2025
Global Macro Updates
Latest Fedspeak shifts to a dovish tone. Last week’s commentary from Fed officials suggests a growing openness to a September rate cut. On Wednesday, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly noted that inflation, when excluding the impact of tariffs, has been trending downward. She also expressed concern about an ‘unwelcome’ slowdown in the labour market. According to Reuters, Daly, a non-voting member, stated that these combined factors indicate the Fed will likely need to adjust its policy in the coming months.
Echoing this sentiment, Minneapolis' Neel Kashkari, also a non-voter, told CNBC on Wednesday that the economy is slowing and that it may soon be appropriate to begin adjusting the fed funds rate. Kashkari reiterated his expectation of two rate cuts by the end of the year, though he cautioned that persistent inflation from tariffs could result in fewer cuts.
In addition, on Wednesday, Fed Governor Lisa Cook warned of a cooling labour market. She described the July jobs report as ‘concerning’ and the revisions as ‘somewhat typical of a turning point in the economy,’ according to Bloomberg news. While she did not comment on a potential September rate decision, her remarks added to the shift in sentiment.
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