S&P 500 -0.25% to 6,373 US yields edge higher: 10-year +0.3 bps to 4.289%Gold drops -1.65% to $3,342.30 an ounceDXY +0.24% to 98.50What to look out for today
Companies reporting on Tuesday, 12th August: Cardinal Health
Key data to move markets today
EU: German ZEW Economic Sentiment and Current Situation Survey and Eurozone Economic Sentiment.
UK: Average Earnings, Claimant Count Rate, Claimant Count Change, ILO Unemployment, and Employment Change.
US: CPI and Monthly Budget Statement.
US Stock Indices
Dow Jones Industrial Average -0.45%.
Nasdaq 100 -0.36%.
S&P 500 -0.25%, with 8 of the 11 sectors of the S&P 500 down.
US markets closed lower on Monday. While President Trump's decision to extend a deadline for higher tariffs on China provided some support, it wasn't enough to lift the major indices.
BofA's latest Global Fund Manager Survey. Underscoring the cautious mood, as noted by Bloomberg news, a Bank of America (BofA) survey revealed that a record 91% of fund managers now view US stocks as overvalued—the highest proportion since the survey began in 2001.
However, investors are the most optimistic they've been since February, according to BofA's latest Global Fund Manager Survey. It shows that global equity allocations are at their highest level in six months, while cash levels have dropped to a near-historic low of 3.9%. However, this bullishness is tempered by concerns about global growth. The survey indicated that 41% of investors, up from the July survey’s 31%, expect the global economy to weaken.
Investors are still cautious about the US market, with 16% underweight on US equities, the highest proportion since February. A record 91% of investors believe that US stocks are overvalued. While the risk of a trade war triggering a global recession remains a top concern, investors are increasingly worried that inflation could prevent the Fed from cutting interest rates.
The ‘Long Mag 7’ trade continues to be the most crowded, even though a majority of investors (52%) don't believe there's an AI bubble, with 55% saying that AI is already boosting productivity. BoA strategists addressed concerns about extended valuations and market concentration in Big Tech. They argue that the group's impressive earnings visibility provides a strong basis for the broader S&P 500's earnings narrative, as the AI tailwind unfolds alongside more traditional economic factors.
In corporate news, Nvidia and AMD have agreed to give the Trump administration 15% of their sales of specific AI chips to China. The deal secures them export licences for the chips.
In a major sports broadcasting deal, Paramount Skydance has struck a seven-year, $7.7 billion agreement with TKO for exclusive rights to all UFC fights in the US.
According to The Wall Street Journal, TV broadcaster Nexstar is in advanced talks to acquire its rival, Tegna.
Activist investor Engine Capital has acquired a 3% stake in Avantor and is pushing for significant changes or a potential sale of the company.
S&P 500 Best performing sector
Consumer Staples +0.17%, with Altria Group +2.31%, Procter & Gamble +0.96%, and Church & Dwight +0.81%.
S&P 500 Worst performing sector
Energy -0.79%, with Diamondback Energy -3.65%, Halliburton -1.91%, and Schlumberger -1.52%.
Mega Caps
Alphabet -0.26%, Amazon -0.62%, Apple -0.83%, Meta Platforms -0.45%, Microsoft -0.05%, Nvidia -0.37%, and Tesla +2.84%.
Information Technology
Best performer: Micron Technology +4.06%.
Worst performer: Intuit -5.73%.
Materials and Mining
Best performer: Albemarle +7.00%.
Worst performer: Martin Marietta Materials -1.80%.
European Stock Indicest
CAC 40 -0.57%.
DAX -0.34%.
FTSE 100 +0.37%.
Corporate Earnings Reports
Posted on Monday, 11th August
- Barrick Mining quarterly revenue +16.7% to $3.691 bn vs. $3.613 bn estimate.
EPS at $0.47 vs. $0.46 estimate.
Mark Bristow, President and CEO, said, “Q2 was another quarter where Barrick delivered on all fronts. We’re growing production, lowering costs and advancing the industry’s most exciting pipeline of gold and copper projects. From the ramp-up at Goldrush to the progress at Pueblo Viejo, Lumwana and Reko Diq, not to mention the transformational potential of Fourmile, we’re demonstrating the strength and depth of our portfolio.” — see report.
- AMC Entertainment quarterly revenue +33.9% to $1.382 bn vs. $1.339 bn estimate.
EPS at $0.00 vs. -$0.07 estimate.
Adam Aron, Chairman and CEO, said, “In this second quarter of 2025, AMC showcased the impressive operating leverage inherent in our business. AMC’s revenue growth of 35.6% above last year’s second quarter drove an Adjusted EBITDA increase of 391.4%, to a highly gratifying $189.2 million. That was $150.7 million more Adjusted EBITDA than was posted in last year’s second quarter. It is a simple reality, and hopefully a harbinger of things to come that as AMC’s revenues grow, our EBITDA can soar. With such a sizable increase in adjusted EBITDA, net cash provided by AMC’s operating activities in the quarter surged to a positive $138.4 million, a dramatic turnaround from last year’s net cash used in second quarter operating activities of $34.6 million, and a total favorable swing of $173.0 million quarter over quarter.” — see report.
Commodities
Gold spot -1.65% to $3,342.30 an ounce.
Silver spot -1.88% to $37.60 an ounce.
West Texas Intermediate +0.99% to $63.98 a barrel.
Brent crude +0.85% to $66.68 a barrel.
Gold prices declined on Monday following the US President's statement that imported gold bars would not be subject to tariffs.
Spot gold prices closed -1.65% lower, at $3,342.30 an ounce. This decrease comes after US gold futures prices reached a record high on Friday, driven by reports that the US administration might impose country-specific import tariffs on the most commonly traded gold bullion bars.
In a statement on his social media account, the US President clarified that gold would be exempt from tariffs, but he did not provide further details.
Oil prices recovered on Monday, following a decline of over four percentage points last week, as market attention shifted to Friday’s talks between the US and Russia regarding the conflict in Ukraine.
Brent crude futures closed up 56 cents, or +0.85%, at $66.68 a barrel, while WTI crude futures rose 63 cents, or +0.99%, to $63.98.
The US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin are scheduled to meet on 15th August in Alaska to discuss a resolution to the war in Ukraine. These talks come amidst heightened US pressure on Russia, which raises the possibility of more stringent penalties if a peace agreement isn't reached.
President Trump had previously set a deadline of last Friday for Russia, which invaded Ukraine in February 2022, to agree to a peace deal or face secondary sanctions on its oil buyers. Concurrently, the US is also urging India to decrease its Russian oil imports.
Oil prices have recently been under pressure as traders revised their expectations for supply disruptions downward, especially after the US imposed an additional tariff only on India, rather than on all buyers of Russian oil.
An Exxon Mobil-led consortium announced last Friday that it had started crude production four months ahead of schedule at a fourth floating production, storage, and offloading vessel in Guyana.
Additionally, data released on Saturday by the National Bureau of Statistics showed that China's producer prices experienced a larger-than-expected decline in July.
Note: As of 5 pm EDT 11 August 2025
Currencies
EUR -0.24% to $1.1613.
GBP -0.03% to $1.34326.
Bitcoin +1.62% to $118,857.63.
Ethereum +5.23% to $4,251.10.
The US dollar strengthened across the board on Monday, recovering from last week’s decline.
The dollar index was +0.24% to 98.50, following a -0.49% drop last week.
The euro depreciated against the dollar, falling -0.24% to $1.1613. The British pound was largely unchanged against the dollar at $1.3432, after briefly reaching $1.3476, its highest level since 25th July. The pound also remained relatively stable against the euro, trading at 86.53 pence per euro.
Money market futures now imply an approximately 80% probability that the BoE will implement another interest rate cut by its December meeting.
The US currency also gained against the Japanese yen, trading up +0.26% at ¥148.10. Japanese markets were closed for the Mountain Day holiday.
The dollar's softening was largely a result of investors adjusting their expectations for potential interest rate cuts by the Fed. This shift followed data showing weaknesses in the US jobs and manufacturing sectors. Fed officials have expressed growing concerns about the labour market, suggesting a willingness to consider a rate cut as early as September.
The dollar showed minimal reaction to President Trump's signing of an executive order that extends a pause on significantly higher US tariffs on Chinese imports for an additional 90 days.
Fixed Income
US 10-year Treasury +0.3 basis points to 4.289%.
German 10-year bund +1.0 basis points to 2.700%.
UK 10-year gilt -3.6 basis points to 4.568%.
US Treasury yields saw a slight increase on Monday, with trading activity remaining subdued in the absence of significant news or economic data. The market's primary focus is the highly anticipated July consumer price inflation report, scheduled for release today.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell has indicated that he expects prices to rise this summer due to US tariff policies. Economists are forecasting a 0.2% increase in headline inflation for July, which would translate to an annual gain of 2.8%. Core prices are expected to rise by 0.3%, bringing the annual increase to 3.0%.
The 10-year Treasury note yield rose by +0.3 bps to 4.289%, while the 2-year note yield was +1.4 bps to 3.783%. In contrast, the 30-year yield saw a marginal decline of -0.3 bps, settling at 4.854%.
Following reports from Bloomberg news, it appears President Trump has broadened his search to replace Chair Powell, whose term as Fed chair ends in May. The candidates reportedly under consideration now include two current Fed Vice Chairs, Michelle Bowman and Philip Jefferson, as well as Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan.
Fed funds futures traders are now pricing in a 85.9% probability of a rate cut in September, up from 90.4% last week, according to CME Group's FedWatch Tool. Traders are currently anticipating 57.9 bps of cuts by year-end, lower than the 61.1 bps expected last week.
Across the Atlantic, German two-year yields, which are highly sensitive to shifts in monetary policy expectations, rose for the fourth consecutive day on Monday.
The German two-year yield was +1.1 bps to 1.977%, reaching its highest level since 3rd April. The German 10-year yield also rose, gaining +1.0 bps to 2.700%, following a +1.1 bps increase last week. At the longer end, the 30-year yield climbed by +2.0 bps to 3.226%.
The 10-year Italian yield was +1.1 bps at 3.493%, and the French 10-year yield was +0.7 bps to 3.364%. The spread between Italian and German yields currently stands at 79.3 basis points.
Note: As of 5 pm EDT 11 August 2025
Global Macro Updates
July CPI preview. The July Consumer Price Index (CPI) report is scheduled for release today, at 8:30 am EDT. The consensus estimate is that core CPI will increase by 0.1 percentage point to 0.3% m/o/m, its highest level since January, and to 3.0% y/o/y, the highest since February. Economists have noted expectations for the full impact of tariffs to become more evident, particularly within core goods categories such as apparel, appliances, furniture, and electronics, which have already experienced upward price pressures.
However, there is an ongoing debate regarding the magnitude and persistence of this impact. Some analysts have argued that a broader disinflationary environment and a weakening labour market could mitigate tariff-related inflation. On the services side, shelter costs are projected to remain subdued following June's 0.18% m/o/m increase, the lowest since February 2021. Recent declines in airfares and hotel prices are expected to stabilise or reverse.
From the Fed's perspective, this report is a significant data point as it weighs a potential rate cut in September. Nonetheless, there is the suggestion that the Fed's reaction function may be more heavily influenced by labour market data, particularly after the notably weak July NFP report and expectation of further labour market cooling.
Fed Vice Chair Bowman supports three interest rate cuts by year-end. In prepared remarks over the weekend, Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman reaffirmed her forecast for three 25 bps rate cuts by the end of the year, a position she has maintained since last December. Echoing her dissent from the FOMC’s August decision, Bowman expressed concerns about the labour market, citing ‘signs of fragility’ even while acknowledging that the economy may be near full employment.
Bowman specifically noted that recent soft payroll data could indicate a significant softening in labour demand. She highlighted that job gains have been concentrated in sectors less affected by the business cycle, such as healthcare and social services. While Bowman's remarks align with her established public stance, they underscore a potential dovish shift in the Fed's collective thinking.
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