Corporate Earnings Calendar 22 May - 28 May 2025
Thursday: Intuit, Analog Devices, Autodesk, Ross Stores, Williams-Sonoma, Toronto-Dominion Bank
Tuesday: AutoZone, Dollar Tree
Wednesday: HP, Nvidia, Salesforce, Synopsys, Dick’s Sporting Goods
Global market indices
US Stock Indices Price Performance
Nasdaq 100 +7.71% MTD and +0.32% YTD
Dow Jones Industrial Average +4.94% MTD and +0.31% YTD
NYSE +2.58% MTD and +2.67% YTD
S&P 500 +4.95% MTD and -0.63% YTD
The S&P 500 is -0.81% over the past week, with 8 of the 11 sectors up MTD. The Equally Weighted version of the S&P 500 is -0.65% over this past week and +0.10% YTD.
The S&P 500 Information Technology is the leading sector so far this month, +9.57% MTD and -2.94% YTD, while Health Care is the weakest sector at -6.48% MTD and -4.60% YTD.
Over this past week, Consumer Staples outperformed within the S&P 500 at +2.82%, followed by Utilities and Health Care at +2.23% and +2.05%, respectively. Conversely, Energy underperformed at -4.34%, followed by Consumer Discretionary and Information Technology at -2.60% and -2.19%, respectively.
Stocks experienced a significant decline on Wednesday, primarily triggered by a disappointing Treasury bond auction that intensified a broader selloff in the debt market. The equity market recorded its most substantial single-session loss in a month, with the S&P 500 decreasing by -1.61%. These declines were widespread, as 10 out of the 11 S&P 500 sectors were down. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 817 points, or -1.91%, while the Nasdaq Composite retreated by -1.41%.
The equal-weight version of the S&P 500 was -2.15% on Wednesday, underperforming its cap-weighted counterpart by 0.54 percentage points.
The downturn in equities followed the release of earnings reports from prominent retailers including Target, Lowe's, and TJX Companies. Target revised its annual outlook downward, citing softer discretionary spending and a reduction in consumer confidence. In contrast, Lowe's maintained its financial guidance, and TJX Companies also upheld its outlook, contingent upon the stability of current US - China tariff levels. Shares of all three companies declined.
Broader concerns regarding tariffs continue to affect the retail sector. Walmart had indicated during its Q1 earnings call last Thursday that levies would necessitate price increases, whereas Home Depot stated on Tuesday its intention to absorb such costs. On Wednesday, Target affirmed its commitment to minimising price adjustments for consumers.
In corporate news, Alphabet shares were up 2.87% on Wednesday, effectively recouping the losses incurred on Tuesday following the unveiling of its AI initiatives. Investors have expressed concerns that advancements in AI could potentially impact Google's profitable search business.
VF Corporation, the parent company of brands such as Vans and The North Face, reported Q1 revenue that fell short of expectations, leading to a 15.80% decline in its shares. The company had accelerated production and shipments into the US during the 90-day tariff pause.
Canada Goose Holdings opted to withhold its fiscal-year guidance, attributing this decision to prevailing consumer uncertainty. However, the company did report better-than-expected Q1 results, which propelled its shares to soar by over 19.90%. The company faces significant exposure to tariffs on goods imported into Canada, where nearly all of its down-filled coats are manufactured.
OpenAI is set to acquire the AI devices startup founded by former iPhone designer Jony Ive for $6.4 billion.
Phillips 66 and activist investor Elliott Investment Management each secured two seats on the oil refiner's board of directors.
Mega caps: The Magnificent Seven had a largely negative performance this week, with Alphabet +1.93%, while Microsoft -0.08%, Nvidia -2.62%, Meta Platforms -3.62%, Tesla -3.76%, Amazon -4.34%, and Apple -4.82%.
Energy stocks had a decisively negative performance this week, with the Energy sector itself -4.34%. WTI and Brent prices are -2.37% and -1.78%, respectively, this week. Over this past week Shell -1.47%, Energy Fuels -2.82%, Baker Hughes -3.14%, Hess -3.43%, Marathon Petroleum -4.17%, Chevron -4.31%, ExxonMobil -4.44%, BP -4.92%, ConocoPhillips -5.86%, Occidental Petroleum -6.14%, Halliburton -6.26%, Apa -8.04%, and Phillips 66 -10.36%.
Materials and Mining stocks had a mixed performance this week, with the Materials sector +0.97%. Over the past seven days, Sibanye Stillwater +22.93%, Newmont Corporation +8.18%, Yara International +5.67%, Mosaic +5.52%, and CF Industries +3.93%, while Freeport-McMoRan -2.69%, Nucor -4.59% and Albemarle -7.60%.
European Stock Indices Price Performance
Stoxx 600 +4.99% MTD and +9.10% YTD
DAX +7.23% MTD and +21.16% YTD
CAC 40 +4.17% MTD and +7.18% YTD
IBEX 35 +7.67% MTD and +23.39% YTD
FTSE MIB +7.76% MTD and +18.53% YTD
FTSE 100 +3.43% MTD and +7.51% YTD
This week, the pan-European Stoxx Europe 600 index is +1.83%. It was -0.04% on Wednesday, closing at 553.82.
So far this month in the STOXX Europe 600, Travel & Leisure is the leading sector, +11.44% MTD and -4.08% YTD, while Health Care is the weakest at +0.35% MTD and -3.02% YTD.
This week, Telecommunications outperformed within the STOXX Europe 600, at +6.80%, followed by Utilities and Health Care at +5.27% and +4.26%, respectively. Conversely, Basic Resources underperformed at -1.42%, followed by Autos & Parts and Oil & Gas, at -1.36% and -0.92%, respectively.
Germany's DAX index was +0.36% on Wednesday, closing at 24,122.40. It was +2.53% for the week. France's CAC 40 index was -0.40% on Wednesday, closing at 7,910.49. It was +0.94% over the past week.
The UK's FTSE 100 index was +2.35% over the past week to 8,786.46. It was +0.06% on Wednesday.
Defensive sectors demonstrated stronger performance, indicative of a flight-to-safety dynamic in market pricing. Utilities outperformed, as SSE and Severn Trent both exceeded EPS expectations and provided optimistic guidance for FY25. Elia Group also reaffirmed its full-year guidance. The Food, Beverage & Tobacco sector also registered gains, primarily propelled by Greenyard and UIE following their robust earnings and guidance updates.
The Technology sector received a significant boost from Infineon Technologies, which announced a collaboration with Nvidia to develop chips for novel power delivery systems within AI data centres.
In contrast, Real Estate declined, with UK housebuilders leading the downturn after higher-than-expected British inflation fuelled concerns of impending interest rate hikes. The Retail sector also underperformed, particularly JD Sports Fashion, despite reporting in-line results. Marks and Spencer Group surpassed EPS expectations but indicated a potential £300 million cost related to a cyber incident. Attention was also drawn to Currys, which stated it expects its full-year adjusted profit before tax to be approximately £162 million, exceeding its prior guidance of around £160 million and FactSet's estimate of £161.5 million. In the Luxury sector, LVMH Moët Hennessy Louis Vuitton shares declined after a reported drop in Chanel's sales raised broader concerns regarding luxury pricing.
According to LSEG I/B/E/S data, STOXX 600 first quarter earnings are expected to increase 2.3% from Q1 2024. Excluding the Energy sector, earnings are expected to increase 7.9%. First quarter revenue is expected to increase 2.3% from Q1 2024. Excluding the Energy sector, revenues are expected to increase 4.3%. Of the 271 companies in the STOXX 600 that have reported earnings to date for Q1 2025, 60.1% reported results exceeding analyst estimates. In a typical quarter 54% beat analyst EPS estimates. Of the 330 companies in the STOXX 600 that have reported revenue to date for Q1 2025, 54.8% reported revenue exceeding analyst estimates. In a typical quarter 58% beat analyst revenue estimates.
Financials is the sector with most companies reporting above estimates at 75%, while Industrials and Basic Materials with a surprise factor of 10%, are the sectors that beat earnings expectations by the highest surprise factor. In the Consumer Non-Cyclicals sector, 32% of companies have reported below estimates. Additionally, its earnings surprise factor was the lowest at -10%. The STOXX 600 surprise factor is 6.5%, which is above the long-term (since 2012) average surprise factor of 5.8%. The forward four-quarter price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) for the STOXX 600 sits at 14.3x, matching the 10-year average of 14.3x.
During the week of 26th May, 2 companies are expected to report quarterly earnings.
Other Global Stock Indices Price Performance
MSCI World Index +5.87% MTD and +4.37% YTD
Hang Seng +7.72% MTD and +18.78% YTD
This week, the Hang Seng Index was +0.79% . The MSCI World Index was +1.03%.
Currencies
EUR +1.35% MTD and +9.28% YTD to $1.1328.
GBP +1.18% MTD and +7.16% YTD to $1.3416.
On Wednesday the dollar index -0.40% to 99.61. The Dollar Index is -1.39% so far this week, as well as -0.03% MTD and -8.11% YTD.
The US dollar experienced a broad decline against a range of currencies on Wednesday, reinforcing a growing market sentiment that investors are increasingly disinclined towards US assets.
The greenback's losses extended against major currencies including the euro and yen subsequent to the subdued $16 billion sale of 20-year bonds. In afternoon trading, the euro appreciated by +0.41% against the dollar, reaching $1.1328, after earlier climbing to a two-week high. The euro registered a weekly gain of +1.35% against the US dollar.
The British pound rose to its highest valuation since February 2022. This surge followed the release of data indicating that UK consumer inflation in April was more pronounced than most economists had anticipated, thereby somewhat constraining the BoE’s flexibility to implement prompt interest rate cuts.
The Office for National Statistics reported that consumer prices rose at an annual rate of 3.5% in April, up from March’s 2.6%. This marked the highest rate since January 2024 and the most significant monthly increase since 2022. Sterling climbed as high as $1.3470, its highest point since February 2022, ultimately settling +0.23% on the day to $1.3416. It remained largely stable against the euro, trading at 84.325 pence. For the week, the British pound gained +1.18% versus the US dollar.
Of particular concern for the BoE, services inflation, which reflects domestic price pressures, increased by 5.4% in April, exceeding the BoE's forecast of 5.0% for the previous month. Consequently, UK interest rate futures now indicate that traders are factoring in 35 bps of rate cuts throughout the year.
The Japanese yen strengthened against the dollar, which was -0.55% to ¥143.67 on Wednesday, contributing to a weekly decline of -2.03%. This appreciation was partly a continuation of gains derived from a steep rise in domestic bond yields earlier in the week. Yields on 30-year Japanese government bonds surged to new records on Wednesday in the aftermath of a disappointing auction result. This raised concerns regarding forthcoming debt sales in the weeks ahead. Super-long Japanese yields have been rising, mirroring the ascent of Treasury yields, driven by uncertainty about potential new fiscal stimulus ahead of Japan's upper house election scheduled for July. Higher Japanese yields serve to narrow the differential with US Treasuries, thereby diminishing the incentive to hold the dollar.
Market participants are also anticipating the results of upcoming US - Japan currency discussions. Japanese Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato is expected to meet with US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent later this week. Ahead of this meeting, Minister Kato stated that talks on exchange rates would be predicated on their shared understanding that excessive volatility is undesirable.
Note: As of 5:00 pm EDT 21 May 2025
Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin +14.86% MTD and +16.12% YTD to $108,494.69.
Ethereum +39.73% MTD and -24.87% YTD to $2,505.95.
Bitcoin is +4.67% and Ethereum -3.87% over the past 7 days. On Wednesday Bitcoin was +1.73%, reaching its highest level on record at $109,760.08, before falling back to $108,494.69. The previous record was around $109,358, set on 20th January, the day of President Donald Trump's inauguration. Ethereum declined -0.22% on Wednesday to $2,505.95.
Bitcoin’s rally continued this week on easing trade tension between the United States and China, softer inflation numbers, and the downgrade of its sovereign debt rating by Moody’s last Friday. The price of Bitcoin has jumped more than 40% since early April, when Bitcoin fell to around the $74,000 mark. This is due to the wider market rebound following the temporary rollback in tariffs by the US President as he seeks new trade agreements with China, the EU, the UK and other countries. Other support has come from the apparent acceptance of Bitcoin as an asset class by institutional investors, with JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon, a longtime crypto skeptic, stating that the bank will let clients buy Bitcoin. The legitimacy of Bitcoin has also been bolstered by the announcement earlier this month that crypto exchange Coinbase would be joining the S&P 500 index.
Note: As of 5:00 pm EDT 21 May 2025
Fixed Income
US 10-year yield +44.1 bps MTD and +2.9 bps YTD to 4.605%.
German 10-year yield +20.7 bps MTD and +28.5 bps YTD to 2.654%.
UK 10-year yield +31.5 bps MTD and +19.3 bps YTD to 4.761%.
A notable development in the US market has been the steepening of yield curves, indicative of longer-dated bond yields rising more substantially than their shorter-dated counterparts. This suggests that investors are demanding an increased premium for holding debt with extended maturities.
The US Treasury Department experienced subdued demand for its $16 billion offering of 20-year bonds on Wednesday. This outcome reflects investor apprehension regarding the nation's escalating debt. Congress is still deliberating a tax and spending bill that is projected to cause further deterioration to the fiscal outlook.
This poorly received auction follows Moody's decision on Friday to downgrade the US sovereign rating from its top ‘Aaa’ designation, adding to prior downgrades issued by Fitch Ratings and Standard & Poor's.
The auction ended with the debt being sold at a high yield of 5.047%, approximately 1 bps above its trading level prior to the sale. Indirect bidders, a category that includes governments, fund managers, and insurance companies, acquired an above-average share of 69% of the offering, suggesting that foreign demand remained robust. However, overall demand was marginally below average, with the bid to cover ratio at 2.46x, marking the weakest demand since February.
Subsequent to the auction, the yield on the 20-year debt increased to 5.127%, reaching their highest point since November 2023.
Typically, 20-year bonds attract less demand compared to other maturities, such as the benchmark 10-year notes and 30-year bonds, which are often favoured by life insurance companies and pension funds. This particular maturity was reintroduced in May 2020, following a hiatus that began in 1986.
On Wednesday, the yield on the 10-year Treasury note was +11.4 bps to 4.605%. On the shorter end of the curve, the two-year yield was relatively unchanged at 4.030%. On the long end of the curve, the 30-year yield was +11.1 bps to 5.090%.
For the week, the yield on the 10-year Treasury note was +6.7 bps to 4.605%. The yield on the 30-year Treasury bond was +11.5 bps to 5.090%. On the two-year Treasury yield, which is typically more sensitive to near-term interest rate expectations, the yield declined -2.7 bps this week.
Fed funds futures traders are now pricing in a 2.0% probability of a June cut, down from 8.3% last week, according to CME Group's FedWatch Tool. A rate cut at September’s Fed meeting now is seen as the next most likely, with a 66.6% probability. Traders are currently pricing in 50.1 bps of cuts by the end of the year, slightly higher than last week’s 48.9 bps.
In the UK, 10-year gilts on Wednesday, +5.6 bps to 4.761%. This was due to the unexpectedly high CPI number for April, with inflation coming in at 3.5%, well above March’s 2.6%. The UK 10-year yield is +4.5 bps over the past 7 days.
Eurozone government bond yields saw a broad increase on Wednesday, mirroring the trend in US Treasury yields.
Germany's 10-year yield experienced an increase of +4.7 bps, reaching 2.654%. Concurrently, its 2-year yield rose by +2.7 bps to 1.873%. On the longer end of the maturity spectrum, the 30-year German yield increased by +5.0 bps, settling at 3.139%.
Market expectations for the ECB have shifted, with anticipated rate cuts now projecting the key rate to be 1.75% by the end of the year. This contrasts with last month's expectations of around 1.50%, amid heightened anxieties surrounding the global economic repercussions of tariffs. Markets will be looking closely to today’s eurozone PMIs and ECB speak for indications of the timing and pace of these future rate cuts.
Adding to the complexities of Wednesday's trading session was a Bloomberg Terminal outage. This disruption reportedly affected numerous government bond sales, according to several European debt management offices.
For the week, the German 10-year yield was -4.6 bps. Germany's two-year bond yield is -5.3 bps, and on the longer end of the curve, Germany's 30-year yield is -5.4 bps this week.
The spread between US 10-year Treasuries and German Bunds is now 195.1 bps, 11.3 bps higher than last week’s 183.8 bps.
On Wednesday, Italy's 10-year yield increased by +3.3 bps to 3.643%.
The spread of Italy's 10-year yield compared to Germany's Bund yield stands at 98.9 bps, 2.1 bps lower from last week’s 101.0 bps spread. Italian bond yields, a benchmark for the eurozone periphery, are -6.7 bps.
The spread between French and German 10-year bond yields is 65.7 bps this week, 2.2 bps lower than last week at 67.9 bps.
Commodities
Gold spot +0.86% MTD and +25.87% YTD to $3,315.76 per ounce.
Silver spot +2.42% MTD and +15.19% YTD to $33.38 per ounce.
West Texas Intermediate crude +5.36% MTD and -14.34% YTD to $61.34 a barrel.
Brent crude +2.41% MTD and -13.48% YTD to $64.64 a barrel.
Gold prices are +4.32% this week. Gold prices increased for the third consecutive session on Wednesday, reaching a one-week high. This upward trend was primarily attributed to a weaker US dollar and heightened demand for safe-haven assets amidst prevailing economic and geopolitical uncertainties.
Spot gold advanced by +0.81%, settling at $3,315.76 per ounce. The US dollar index was -0.40%, rendering gold more affordable for purchasers utilising foreign currencies.
Gold had reached an unprecedented high of $3,500.05 last month and, despite some pullback in May, is still +25.87% YTD.
This week, WTI and Brent are -2.37% and -1.78%, respectively.
Oil prices ended lower on Wednesday following an announcement by Oman's foreign minister regarding an upcoming round of nuclear negotiations between Iran and the US later this week. Brent futures declined by 97 cents, or -1.48%, settling at $64.64 a barrel. WTI crude fell by $1.74, or -2.76%, to $61.34.
Earlier in the trading session, prices were up after a CNN report on Tuesday indicated that US intelligence suggested Israel was preparing for potential strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities. CNN cited multiple US officials, noting that a final decision by Israeli leaders remained unclear.
Given that Iran is the third-largest producer among OPEC members, any Israeli military action could disrupt the country's oil flows. Furthermore, there are ongoing concerns that Iran might retaliate by impeding the passage of oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz. This vital waterway is used by Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Iraq, and the United Arab Emirates for exporting crude oil and refined fuels.
Washington and Tehran have engaged in multiple rounds of discussions this year concerning Iran's nuclear programme, even as the White House has reinstated a campaign of more stringent sanctions on Iranian crude exports.
EIA weekly report. The EIA reported on Wednesday that US crude and fuel inventories unexpectedly increased last week. This build was primarily driven by crude imports reaching a six-week high, coupled with a decline in demand for both gasoline and distillates.
Crude inventories rose by 1.3 million barrels, reaching a total of 443.2 million barrels in the week concluding 16th May. Conversely, crude stocks at the Cushing, Oklahoma, delivery hub experienced a reduction of 457,000 barrels.
Net US crude imports marked their third consecutive weekly increase, climbing by 110,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 2.58 million bpd last week, representing a six-week peak.
In terms of refining activity, refinery crude runs advanced by 89,000 bpd, and refinery utilisation rates saw a 0.5 percentage point increase, reaching 90.7% during the week.
Regarding refined products, US gasoline stocks expanded by 816,000 barrels, totalling 225.5 million barrels. Gasoline supplied, which serves as an indicator of demand, decreased last week to 8.6 million bpd, down from 8.8 million bpd the preceding week.
Distillate stockpiles, encompassing diesel and heating oil, also registered an increase of 580,000 barrels during the week, reaching 104.1 million barrels, according to EIA data. Furthermore, the four-week average for distillate fuel demand fell to its lowest point since April 2024, settling at 3.6 million bpd.
Note: As of 5:00 pm EDT 21 May 2025
Key data to move markets
EUROPE
Thursday: Eurozone HCOB Composite, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, German HCOB Composite, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, IFO’s Business Climate, Current Assessment, and Expectations surveys, German Bundesbank Monthly Report, French HCOB Composite, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts, and speeches by ECB Executive Board Member Frank Elderson and Vice President Luis de Guindos.
Friday: German GDP, and speeches by ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane, Executive Board Members Isabel Schnabel and Piero Cipollone, and François Villeroy de Galhau.
Tuesday: Eurozone Business Climate, Consumer Confidence, and Economic Sentiment Indicator, German GfK Consumer Confidence Survey, and French CPI.
Wednesday: German Unemployment Rate and Unemployment Change.
UK
Thursday: S&P Global Composite, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, GfK Consumer Confidence, and speeches by BoE’s External Member Swati Dhingra, Chief Economist Huw Pill, and Deputy Governor Sarah Breeden.
Friday: Retail Sales.
Tuesday: A speech by BoE Deputy Governor Clare Lombardelli.
USA
Thursday: Initial and Continuing Jobless Claims, S&P Global Composite, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, Existing Home Sales, and a speech by New York Fed President John Williams.
Friday: New Home Sales, and speeches by St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem, Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid, and Fed Governor Lisa Cook.
Sunday: A speech by Fed Chair Jerome Powell.
Tuesday: Durable Goods Orders, Nondefense Capital Goods Orders ex Aircraft, Housing Price Index, Consumer Confidence, and speeches by New York Fed President John Williams, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, and Fed Governor Christopher Waller.
Wednesday: FOMC Minutes, and a speech by Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari.
JAPAN
Thursday: National CPI and Core CPI.
Monday: A speech by BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda.
Global Macro Updates
Rising US debt means there is no escaping the bond vigilantes. US bonds continued to drop this week as members of Congress battled each other over whether to pass President Donald Trump’s proposed “big, beautiful bill”. This bill is forecast to add at least $3 trillion to US debt over the next decade. The worsening fiscal outlook prompted credit-rating agency Moody’s to strip the US of its last remaining triple-A credit rating last Friday, leaving investors increasingly jittery about the potential impact of rising debt on the US dollar and the US economy. Bond markets vigilantes have been pushing back with traders piling into bets that long-term bond yields would continue to surge on concerns over the rising debt and the projected deficits. This is being reflected in bond auctions with Wednesday’s auction of 20-year notes seeing soft demand. The debt sold at a high yield of 5.047%, around one basis point above where it had traded before the sale. Indirect bidders, including governments, fund managers and insurance companies, took an above-average portion of the sale at 69%, indicating that foreign demand remained solid. Overall demand was slightly below average at 2.46 times the amount of debt on offer, the weakest since February. In addition, according to Bloomberg news, former US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said he’s more alarmed by the country’s growing budget deficit than its trade imbalances, and urged Washington to prioritise fiscal repair. Even the IMF is stepping into the discussion; IMF First Deputy Managing Director Gita Gopinath said in an interview with the Financial Times that fiscal deficits are too large and the country needs to tackle its "ever-increasing" debt burden,
All of this has seen bond yields continue to rise this week with the US dollar feeling the negative impact as trust in the dollar appears to be eroding. The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) has stated that non-US investors hold $59.8 trillion in US assets and, net of derivatives, $33.1 trillion of this is in portfolio investments. Even if investors choose to maintain large allocations to US assets, the case for increasing the currency hedge ratio on those holdings is getting stronger as the dollar appears likely to continue to come under strain on tariff policy uncertainties and the higher inflation associated with tariffs, questions on the resilience of the US economy, and growing unease among non-US investors about the US’ fiscal policy.
While every effort has been made to verify the accuracy of this information, EXT Ltd. (hereafter known as “EXANTE”) cannot accept any responsibility or liability for reliance by any person on this publication or any of the information, opinions, or conclusions contained in this publication. The findings and views expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the views of EXANTE. Any action taken upon the information contained in this publication is strictly at your own risk. EXANTE will not be liable for any loss or damage in connection with this publication.
本文提供给您仅供信息参考之用，不应被视为认购或销售此处提及任何投资或相关服务的优惠招揽或游说。
