Corporate Earnings Calendar 14 August - 20 August 2025
Thursday: Deere & Co., JD.com, Applied Materials
Monday: Palo Alto Networks
Tuesday: Medtronic, The Home Depot, XPeng
Wednesday: Target, Baidu, The Estee Lauder Companies, Analog Devices, Lowe’s Companies
Global market indices
US Stock Indices Price Performance
Nasdaq 100 +2.72% MTD and +13.50% YTD
Dow Jones Industrial Average +0.74% MTD and +0.87% YTD
NYSE +2.00% MTD and +9.27% YTD
S&P 500 +2.01% MTD and +9.95% YTD
The S&P 500 is +1.92% over the past week, with 9 of the 11 sectors up MTD. The Equally Weighted version of the S&P 500 is +2.51% over this past week and +6.92% YTD.
The S&P 500 Materials sector is the leading sector so far this month, +4.26% MTD and +8.89% YTD, while Energy is the weakest sector at -1.87% MTD and -0.06% YTD.
Over this past week, Materials outperformed within the S&P 500 at +3.57%, followed by Consumer Discretionary and Information Technology at +2.62% and +2.51%, respectively. Conversely, Real Estate underperformed at -0.22%, followed by Utilities and Consumer Staples at +0.84% and +0.99%, respectively.
The equal-weight version of the S&P 500 was +1.37% on Wednesday, outperforming its cap-weighted counterpart by 1.05 percentage points.
On Wednesday, major US stock indices saw gains, with the Dow Industrials rising +1.04%, or 464 points to 44,922.27, and the S&P 500 rising +0.32% to its 17th record high of the year at 6,466.58. Additionally, the Nasdaq Composite closed at a new record high of 21,713.14 after rising +0.14%. The equal-weight S&P 500 posted its strongest performance since late May, reflecting broad market participation as approximately 420 of its constituent shares advanced. Small-cap stocks also had a notable session, with the Russell 2000 rising +1.98%.
The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), which measures expected market fluctuations over the next 30 days, hit new intraday lows for the year. It was down 1.63% at 14.49, having settled at 14.73 on Tuesday—its lowest closing level since 26th December.
The market's path of least resistance appears to be higher. This sentiment is supported by heightened expectations for near-term Fed easing, a favourable corporate earnings season, a low-volume, the ongoing secular growth theme of AI, elevated corporate share buybacks, and increased retail investor activity.
Conversely, bearish arguments continue to focus on a softening labour market, the potential for a delayed inflationary impact from tariffs, stretched valuations, and an extended systematic long positioning.
In corporate news, US chip-equipment supplier Applied Materials is facing a lawsuit from a Chinese rival. The suit alleges trade secret theft, which marks a further escalation in the ongoing technology disputes between the US and China.
Oracle has initiated job cuts within its cloud unit, a move indicative of a broader trend among major companies to manage costs, particularly amid substantial investments in AI infrastructure.
CoreWeave, a cloud provider specialising in AI companies, reported that its revenue more than tripled in Q2, however, the company posted a larger-than-expected quarterly loss.
Bullish, a cryptocurrency exchange operator, made its debut on the NYSE. The company's IPO, which raised $1.1 billion at a price of $37 per share, saw its stock open at over $95 per share.
Mega caps: The Magnificent Seven had mostly positive performances this week. Over the last seven days, Apple +9.42%, Tesla +6.09%, Alphabet +2.99%, Nvidia +1.21%, Meta Platforms +1.05%, and Amazon +1.01%, while Microsoft -0.83%.
Amazon’s expansion of grocery delivery. Amazon launched a same-day grocery-delivery service in 1,000 cities, including Phoenix, Orlando, and Kansas City, with plans to more than double this reach to 2,300 US locations by year-end. To attract customers and increase its market share, the company has made this service free for Prime members. With an extensive network of thousands of stores and a vast fleet of drivers, Amazon is poised to offer same-day delivery to over 90% of the country.
This aggressive push into grocery delivery is part of a broader strategy to revitalise growth. Amazon's recent ventures into other markets, such as healthcare, personal computing, and physical retail stores, have yet to achieve the market dominance that the company and its investors expected.
In 2024, Amazon reported generating over $100 billion in gross sales from groceries and household essentials, excluding sales from Whole Foods and Amazon Fresh. The company has further committed to this expansion, announcing in June that it will offer same-day and next-day delivery to more than 4,000 smaller cities and rural areas by the end of the year. To support this logistical effort, Amazon plans to invest $4 billion to triple the size of its delivery network by 2026.
Energy stocks had a mixed performance this week, with the Energy sector itself +1.15%. WTI and Brent prices are -2.44% and -1.52%, respectively, this week. Over this past week, APA +13.84%, Occidental Petroleum +5.20%, ConocoPhillips +2.97%, Phillips 66 +2.29%, Chevron +2.02%, and ExxonMobil +1.02%, while Halliburton -0.09%, Marathon Petroleum -0.44%, Baker Hughes -1.34%, Energy Fuels -1.58%, Shell -2.09%, and BP -2.79%.
Materials and Mining stocks had a mostly positive performance this week, with the Materials sector +3.57%. Over the past seven days, Albemarle +21.35%, Freeport-McMoRan +7.23%, Nucor +5.28%, Mosaic +4.14%, Newmont Corporation +0.94%, and Yara International +0.59%, while Sibanye Stillwater -2.04%, CF Industries -3.87%, and Celanese Corporation -12.59%.
European Stock Indices Price Performance
Stoxx 600 +0.87% MTD and +8.52% YTD
DAX +0.50% MTD and +21.48% YTD
CAC 40 +0.42% MTD and +5.75% YTD
IBEX 35 +4.33% MTD and +29.54% YTD
FTSE MIB +2.31% MTD and +22.67% YTD
FTSE 100 +0.16% MTD and +11.93% YTD
This week, the pan-European Stoxx Europe 600 index is +1.81%. It was +0.54% on Wednesday, closing at 550.85.
So far this month in the STOXX Europe 600, Banks is the leading sector, +5.07% MTD and +45.32% YTD, while Technology is the weakest at -1.98% MTD and -1.33% YTD.
This week, Banks outperformed within the STOXX Europe 600, at +4.86%, followed by Autos & Parts and Basic Resources at +4.55% and +4.52%, respectively. Conversely, Utilities underperformed at -1.44%, followed by Oil & Gas and Telecommunications at -1.06% and -0.14%, respectively.
Germany's DAX index was +0.67% on Wednesday, closing at 24,185.59. It was +1.09% for the week. France's CAC 40 index was +0.66% on Wednesday, closing at 7,804.97. It was +2.23% over the past week.
The UK's FTSE 100 index was -0.18% over the past week to 9,147.81. It was +0.20% on Wednesday.
In Wednesday's trading session, Technology companies were among the top performers, with Nordic Semiconductor leading the STOXX 600 after its Q2 net income of $10.1 million surpassed forecasts, and supported by the company's strong Q3 guidance. Additionally, Prosus rose in tandem with Tencent's market rally.
There was a significant focus on reports that the US and China are tightening controls on advanced microchips. Washington is reportedly using tracking devices to prevent the diversion of these chips to China, while Beijing is scrutinising big tech's purchases of Nvidia H20 chips due to security concerns.
The Utilities sector also outperformed, driven by E.ON, which reported an adjusted net income of €1.93 billion for H1, exceeding estimates. The company also confirmed its FY 2025 guidance.
Retail gained traction, supported by Zalando following insider buying and Matas after the company posted solid Q1 results and reaffirmed its FY 2025 guidance.
Industrial Goods & Services got a boost from the Aerospace and Defence sub-sector. Rheinmetall and Renk shares increased after Renk's H1 adjusted net income reached €51.6 million and its FY2025 revenue forecast topped €1.3 billion.
In contrast, Travel & Leisure lagged. Although TUI posted a strong Q3 EBIT of €321 million, beating estimates, Evolution shares fell due to reports that its games were being used in banned markets.
Finally, Autos & Parts weakened, with Porsche Automobil reporting a 47% drop in its H1 income to €1.11 billion. The company also lowered its FY 2025 guidance, attributed to pressure from tariffs and mixed Q2 earnings.
Other Global Stock Indices Price Performance
MSCI World Index +2.56% MTD and +12.69% YTD
Hang Seng +3.51% MTD and +28.50% YTD
The MSCI World Index is +2.02% over the past 7 days, while the Hang Seng Index is +2.52% over the past 7 days.
Currencies
EUR +2.51% MTD and +13.06% YTD to $1.1704.
GBP +2.74% MTD and +8.47% YTD to $1.3565.
On Wednesday, the US dollar declined for the second consecutive session. The dollar index fell by -0.25% to 97.81, marking its lowest level since 28th July and extending a -0.46% decline from the previous day. This decline follows data released on Tuesday showing that US consumer prices rose only marginally in July, aligning with forecasts. The report indicated that the inflationary impact from tariffs has, thus far, been limited. Over the last seven days the US dollar index is -0.39%. It is -2.24% MTD, and -9.85% year-to-date.
Fedspeak on Wednesday offered nuanced perspectives on the economic outlook. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic stated that the nearly full employment level in the US offers the central bank the ‘luxury’ of not needing to rush into policy adjustments. In contrast, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee noted that the Fed is trying to determine if the effects of tariffs on inflation will be temporary or more persistent.
The dollar's weakness provided support for both the euro and the British pound. The euro gained +0.27% to $1.1704, briefly reaching its highest point since 28th July. Similarly, the pound sterling was +0.50% to $1.3565, reaching its highest level since 24th July.
Over the seven days, the euro is +0.40% against the US dollar, and sterling has increased by +1.57%.
The pound's ascent to a three-week high against the dollar reflects increasing investor conviction that US interest rates are likely to be lowered more quickly than those in the UK. This view persists despite data released on Tuesday showing that the British job market weakened, with payrolls falling for the sixth month in a row. However, wage growth remains strong at 4.8%, a key factor in the BoE's cautious approach to interest rate policy.
The pound has now gained +2.74% against the dollar in August, which, if sustained, would represent its largest monthly gain since April. Today’s Q2 GDP data came in at 0.3%, above expectations, but still a slowdown from the 0.7% expansion seen in Q1. Manufacturing output grew by 0.3% in the second quarter, following a 1.1% increase in the first quarter. This drop is attributed to companies frontloading in Q1 in anticipation of US tariffs. However, in a worrying sign, business investment dropped by 3.9% on a quarterly basis.
On Wednesday, the US dollar declined by -0.32% against the Japanese yen, trading at ¥147.37. This week, the US dollar traded slightly higher, +0.02%, against the Japanese currency. Its performance is -6.18% year-to-date.
Note: As of 5:00 pm EDT 13 August 2025
Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin +5.39% MTD and +31.04% YTD to $122,812.29.
Ethereum +27.58% MTD and +42.08% YTD to $4,759.93.
Bitcoin is +6.71% and Ethereum +29.29% over the past 7 days. On Wednesday, Bitcoin was +2.46% to $122,812.29. Ethereum was +3.83% to $4,759.93.
This week saw Bitcoin’s market dominance fall below 60% as Ethereum continued to soar. The last time Bitcoin’s dominance dropped to this point it was under $100,000. Ethereum has surged more than 50% since the passing of the GENIUS Act in the US in July. This is due to more than half of stablecoins associated with the Act, being built on the Ethereum infrastructure. Cryptocurrencies have also been supported by the Securities and Exchange Commission's recent "Project Crypto" announcement, which is expected to establish clear regulations around the digital asset sector. As noted by The Block, Spot Ethereum ETFs have attracted over $8 billion in net inflows since the beginning of May with $1.5 bn of those inflows in July. On Monday alone, US Spot Ethereum ETFs had over $1 billion worth of net inflows for the first time since their debut in July 2024. This surge in Ethereum ETF inflows indicates a definitive shift in how institutional investors view the asset.
Note: As of 5:00 pm EDT 13 August 2025
Fixed Income
US 10-year yield -13.5 bps MTD and -33.6 bps YTD to 4.240%.
German 10-year yield -1.3 bps MTD and +31.4 bps YTD to 2.683%.
UK 10-year yield +2.2 bps MTD and +2.7 bps YTD to 4.595%.
On Wednesday, US Treasury yields declined as traders increased their bets on a Fed interest rate cut in September. The drop in yields was also attributed to foreign buyers being drawn to the backup in longer-dated yields that occurred on Tuesday.
The yield on the interest-rate-sensitive 2-year note fell by -5.0 bps, settling at 3.693%. Similarly, the yield on 10-year notes was -5.4 bps to 4.240%, and the 30-year yield declined by -5.6 bps to 4.828%.
Market participants are now focussing on the Fed's annual economic policy symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, next week, to see if Fed Chair Powell provides any new insights on future monetary policy. This comes as Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated on Wednesday that there is a strong possibility of a 50 bps rate cut next month.
Over the past seven days, the yield on the 10-year Treasury note was +0.8 bps. The yield on the 30-year Treasury bond was +0.4 bps. On the shorter end, the two-year Treasury yield was -2.7 bps.
Fed funds futures traders are now pricing in a 95.8% probability of a cut in September, according to CME Group's FedWatch Tool. Traders are currently pricing in 63.4 bps of cuts by year-end, higher than last week’s 61.6 bps.
Across the Atlantic, in the UK, on Wednesday the 10-year gilt was -3.4 bps to 4.595%. The UK 10-year yield was +6.2 bps over the past seven days.
On Wednesday, German 30-year government bond yields declined, retreating from a 14-year high reached the previous day, as investors paused their aggressive selling, moving away from riskier assets.
According to analysts, the primary drivers of Tuesday's sell-off were the anticipated Dutch pension reform, which is expected to reduce demand for long-dated bonds, and expectations of a significant increase in German fiscal spending. They foresee a growing imbalance between bond demand and supply, which would continue to pressure prices.
Tuesday's market activity also led to a steepening of yield curves across the euro area, reversing a flattening trend that had been in place since mid-July.
Analysts believe that a resolution to the conflict in Ukraine would ultimately support an appetite for risk assets and, consequently, put downward pressure on bond prices. A peace agreement could also lead to increased bond issuance as Europe finances Ukraine's reconstruction, which would further pressure prices. However, many analysts remain skeptical about the prospect of swift progress, especially after the White House characterised the upcoming summit between President Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin as a ‘listening exercise for the president.’
The yield on Germany's 30-year government bond fell by -7.2 bps to 3.227%, following a 15 bps increase over the prior three sessions. The yield had reached 3.309% on Tuesday, its highest level since the summer of 2011. Policy-sensitive German two-year yields were down -3.6 bps at 1.943%, and German 10-year yields decreased by -6.4 bps to 2.683%.
Italy’s 10-year yield fell by -7.2 bps to 3.459% during the session.
Over the past seven days, the German 10-year yield was +3.3 bps. Germany's two-year bond yield was +1.7 bps, and on the longer end of the curve, Germany's 30-year yield was +5.7 bps.
The spread between US 10-year Treasuries and German Bunds is now 155.7 bps, 2.5 bps lower than last week’s 158.2 bps.
The spread between Italian BTP 10 year yields and German Bund 10-year yields stood at 77.6 bps, a 2.0 bps decrease from 79.6 bps last week. The Italian 10-year yield is +1.3 bps over the past week.
Commodities
Gold spot +1.96% MTD and +27.93% YTD to $3,354.18 per ounce.
Silver spot +4.92% MTD and +33.33% YTD to $38.47 per ounce.
West Texas Intermediate crude -9.40% MTD and -12.52% YTD to $62.74 a barrel.
Brent crude -9.36% MTD and -11.92% YTD to $65.76 a barrel.
Gold prices are -0.41% this week and +27.93% YTD.
Spot gold rose by +0.08% to $3,354.18 per ounce on Wednesday. The US dollar index fell to its lowest level in over two weeks, which made the metal more affordable for international buyers. Gold's traditional role as a safe-haven asset remains relevant amid geopolitical developments.
European and Ukrainian leaders were scheduled to engage in discussions with the US President in anticipation of his meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Friday in Alaska.
Furthermore, a 90-day extension of the tariff truce between Washington and Beijing was announced on Monday, adding to a period of geopolitical calm that can influence market sentiment.
On Wednesday, oil prices declined to their lowest levels in over two months, influenced by bearish supply forecasts from both the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) and the International Energy Agency (IEA). Investors also monitored the US President's warning of ‘severe consequences’ for Russia if President Vladimir Putin obstructs peace efforts in Ukraine.
Brent crude futures settled at $65.76 a barrel, a decrease of 35 cents, or -0.53%. The contract fell to an intraday low of $65.01, the lowest point since 6th June. WTI crude futures dropped by 37 cents, or -0.59%, to settle at $62.74 a barrel, after touching an intraday low of $61.94, its lowest price since 2nd June.
This week, WTI and Brent are -2.44% and -1.52%, respectively.
The IEA's monthly report on Wednesday contributed to the downward pressure by raising its forecast for oil supply growth this year while simultaneously lowering its demand forecast. This contrasts with a report from OPEC+ on Tuesday, which raised its global oil demand forecast for the coming year and trimmed its estimates for supply growth from non-OPEC+ producers, pointing to a tighter market ahead.
EIA weekly report. On Wednesday, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported an unexpected increase in US crude inventories last week, primarily driven by a rise in imports. Conversely, gasoline stockpiles saw a decline.
According to the EIA, crude inventories rose by 3 million barrels, reaching a total of 426.7 million barrels for the week ending 8th August. Crude stocks at Cushing, Oklahoma, a key delivery hub, also increased by 45,000 barrels during the same period.
Refinery crude runs expanded by 56,000 barrels per day (bpd), while utilisation rates decreased by 0.5 percentage points to 96.4%. However, refinery utilisation in the Midwest region reached its highest level since December 2023.
Additionally, net US crude imports increased by 699,000 bpd to 3.34 million bpd, and crude exports grew by 259,000 bpd, reaching 3.58 million bpd.
Gasoline stockpiles fell by 792,000 barrels, bringing the total to 226.3 million barrels. Gasoline supplied, a key indicator of demand, experienced a slight decline of 40,000 bpd, settling at 9 million bpd. The four-week average for total product supplied reached its highest point since August 2023, at 21.36 million bpd.
Distillate stockpiles, which include diesel and heating oil, saw a rise of 714,000 barrels, totalling 113.7 million barrels. Distillate demand increased to 1.83 million bpd, up from 1.71 million bps the previous week and surpassing the four-week average of 1.75 million bpd.
IEA Oil Market Report - August 2025. On Wednesday, the International Energy Agency (IEA) announced that global oil supply is projected to increase more rapidly than previously anticipated this year and next. This accelerated growth is attributed to increased output from OPEC+ members and a rise in supply from non-OPEC+ producers.
The IEA, an advisory body for industrialised nations, stated in its monthly report that supply will increase by 2.5 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2025, up from its prior forecast of 2.1 million bpd. A further increase of 1.9 million bpd is expected in 2026. This surge in supply follows the decision by OPEC+ to unwind its recent production cuts more quickly than originally planned. The additional supply, along with concerns regarding the economic effects of US tariffs, has put downward pressure on oil prices this year.
The IEA's forecast suggests that supply is rising faster than demand. The agency revised its global oil demand growth forecast downwards, expecting an increase of 680,000 bpd this year and 700,000 bpd next year, both figures representing a 20,000 bpd reduction from its previous estimates.
According to the agency, ‘the latest data show lackluster demand across the major economies and, with consumer confidence still depressed, a sharp rebound appears remote.’ The IEA concluded that ‘oil market balances look ever more bloated.’
The IEA's demand projections are at the lower end of industry forecasts, as the agency anticipates a faster transition to renewable energy sources compared to other forecasters. In contrast, OPEC maintained its forecast for demand yesterday to rise by 1.29 million bpd this year.
The report implies that global supply may exceed demand by nearly 3 million bpd next year, driven by production growth from outside the wider OPEC+ group and a limited expansion in demand. Although OPEC+ is increasing production, non-OPEC+ producers, particularly the US, Canada, Brazil, and Guyana, are expected to lead supply growth both this year and next.
Despite the current supply surplus, the IEA noted that additional sanctions on Russia and Iran could potentially curb supply from these two major producers. The US recently announced new sanctions on Iran, while the EU lowered the price cap for Russian oil as part of its latest sanctions against Moscow.
The agency also suggested that continued stock-building by China, driven by institutional and policy developments aimed at enhancing energy security, may help absorb the market surplus. Analysts have noted that this behaviour supported prices earlier in the year.
Despite lowering its demand forecast, the IEA projects that global crude oil refining rates will approach a new all-time high of 85.6 million bpd in August, following a rate of 84.9 million bpd in July. The agency anticipates that global refinery runs will increase by 670,000 bpd to 83.6 million bpd in 2025, and by an additional 470,000 bpd to 84 million bpd in 2026, a trend driven by better-than-expected data from OECD market economies and China.
Note: As of 5:00 pm EDT 13 August 2025
Key data to move markets
EUROPE
Thursday: Eurozone GDP, Eurozone Industrial Production, and Eurozone Employment Change.
Monday: German Bundesbank Monthly Report.
Wednesday: Eurozone Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices and Core Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices.
UK
Thursday: GDP, Industrial Production, and Manufacturing Production.
Wednesday: CPI, PPI and RPI.
USA
Thursday: Initial and Continuing Jobless Claims, PPI and a speech by Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin.
Friday: NY Empire State Manufacturing Index, Retail Sales, Industrial Production, Michigan Consumer Inflation Expectations Index, and UoM 1-year and 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectations.
Tuesday: Building Permits and Housing Starts.
Wednesday: FOMC Minutes and a speech by Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic.
CHINA
Friday: Industrial Production and Retail Sales.
Wednesday: PBoC Interest Rate Decision.
JAPAN
Thursday: GDP.
Tuesday: Adjusted Merchandise Trade Balance, Imports, Exports, and Merchandise Trade Balance Total.
GLOBAL
Friday: Trump-Putin Meeting.
Global Macro Updates
The Fed comes under further political pressure. On Wednesday, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent called for the Fed to cut rates by 50 bps at the September meeting and suggested that the Fed should cut rates by at least 1.50% as soon as possible. In an interview with Bloomberg Surveillance on Wednesday, Bessent suggested that the Fed would have cut rates in June and July if the weakness of the labour market had been known. The July nonfarm payroll (NFP) indicated that only 73,000 jobs were created, according to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. This fell well short of the market forecast of 110,000 jobs. The May and June NFPs were also revised downward by 258,000.
He also announced that President Trump was considering upwards of 11 candidates to replace current Fed chair Jerome Powell, whose term as chair is due to expire in May 2026, including both current Fed officials as well as private-sector individuals. Later on Wednesday President Trump said he may name the next Fed chair “a little bit early” and suggested that he was down to three or four potential candidates. Although markets are now virtually fully pricing in a rate cut in September, there are growing concerns that, despite July’s headline inflation coming in roughly in line with expectations, other inflation indicators that feed into the core PCE index, the Fed’s favourite inflation gauge, will show that tariffs effects are starting to be felt. In addition, although US stock indices continue to reach new records, there are undercurrents of uncertainty about the ability of corporates to absorb the tariff associated costs over the medium to longer term. Given valuation levels and the degree of macro risks on the horizon including a decelerating US economy, some tariff uncertainties remaining, and expectations that tariff induced inflation will pick up, investors may have already achieved all the gains this year that they are going to. Margin compression may be on the cards for many firms, as US consumers might be more sensitive to price increases under a softening labour market.
Ultimately, if history is an accurate guide, tariff costs, direct and indirect, will be borne by the consumer. From a policy perspective, there will be little fiscal policy will be able to accomplish given that already high debt and deficit levels have helped keep long-term rates high. Therefore, the ability of the Fed to pivot from its policy of watching and waiting can be time limited. If it wants to make a definitive statement that may still positively impact business hiring and shore up the consumer, then that outsize cut that Bessent is calling for may not seem that farfetched after all. However, under exceptional American uncertainty, a 50 bps rate cut, particularly one following unprecedented public criticism from the Executive branch, could have lasting repercussions. Such a move might be perceived as a capitulation, which could erode the Fed's credibility over time. Furthermore, a rate cut of this magnitude could be interpreted by investors as a signal that the Fed is taking proactive measures in response to underlying economic weaknesses that are not yet visible. In the past, such a signal has tended to be perceived quite negatively by equity markets.
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