Global macro, local voice: 10 takeaways from EXANTE’s conversation with portfolio manager Manuel Cañas

Manuel Cañas, founder of Archipel Capital, has spent over 20 years reading markets.

Horacio Coutiño, EXANTE multi-asset strategist, recently sat down with him for a fascinating conversation on all things investment management, for portfolio managers.

Here's what stood out.

1. No ego, amigo

If there's one lesson to take from this conversation, it's this: don't tie your pride to your success.

"Pride, once tethered to success, becomes a liability in a profession that routinely proves you wrong."

2. Warsh and the transparency paradox

Kevin Warsh's approach to Fed communication isn't wrong, Manuel argues. It's underappreciated.

"Past a certain point, transparency can neutralise the very guidance it is meant to deliver."

Warsh wants to recalibrate how much the Fed discloses so its guidance doesn't cancel itself out.

3. Always start with the instrument, never the framework

The investment process doesn't always begin top-down. Sometimes the asset itself is the starting point.

Correlation across asset classes can shape how you execute your strategy. A shift in one market rarely stays contained.

It spreads, and this spread can compound both risk and opportunity.

4. Where alpha really lives

Alpha is the gap between price and the fundamental value your own intuition assigns to an asset.

But it doesn't stop there.

"The opportunities to deploy capital arise when a gap opens up between market prices and the assessment of what the asset is actually worth."

As the post-pandemic Australian rates trade showed, alpha can also live in the plumbing. For instance, this might be in the form of subtle inefficiencies, positioning imbalances or structural quirks most investors fail to notice.

5. Home bias is a tax on judgement

Proximity to a market, especially your own country, often adds an emotional lens that can quietly distort research.

Resources and time are finite, so investors need to define, upfront, what the research process is actually for and how much of it a given trade deserves.

"Treat research discipline as a form of capital allocation in its own right."

6. Emerging markets now provide greater resilience

Manuel is positive on emerging market strength, pointing to real, structural improvement in fundamentals over the last two decades.

"Emerging markets have shown they can absorb shocks more effectively than in prior decades."

7. For Mexico, the opportunity is in the noise

The next three to six months should get loud for Banco de México watchers.

"For investors willing to form a view before that noise crystallises, the uncertainty itself is the opportunity."

Inflation prints coming in below consensus, higher US rates and the succession of deputy governor Jonathan Heath are all potential sources of volatility according to Manuel.

8. Volatility can provide the entry point to Brazil

Manuel is watching Brazilian equities ahead of the October 4 presidential election.

"Equity investors can get ahead of themselves (in either direction) before an important political catalyst, such as a presidential election."

Whatever the outcome, the volatility around it could be the entry point, rather than the risk to avoid. It echoes the Argentinian equities trade in 2022.

9. Japan and the UK: keep your eye on the wiring

Japan's internal wiring is changing. Fiscal impulse and political pressures are shifting the correlation between rates and foreign exchange in the Land of the Rising Sun.

The UK offers a similarly interesting setup across both rates and currency, with the fiscal-monetary balance still in flux.

10. US rates and equities are more connected than they may appear

US Treasuries appear to be finding support from the growth expectations priced into US equities, tech stocks especially.

"A correction that may translate into a de-rating of these expectations can also spill over into US fixed income markets."

This is just a snippet of what Manuel and Horacio covered.

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