A Fed Reset?

S&P 500 +0.72% to 7,730.99

US 10-year yield +2.4 basis points to 4.674%

Spot gold +0.19% to $4,600.92 an ounce

DXY +0.00% to 99.13

Key data to move markets today

EU: French CPI, Spanish Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices, German Unemployment Change, German Unemployment Rate, and Eurozone Business Climate, Consumer Confidence and Economic Sentiment Indicator and a speech by ECB Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel

USA: Michigan Consumer Sentiment and Expectations Indices, UoM 1- and 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectations, Chicago PMI, Nonfarm Payrolls Benchmark Revision, Jackson Hole Symposium and a speech by Fed Chair Kevin Warsh

Global Macro Updates

ECB data shows continued expansion in credit to the real economy. Data released by the ECB Thursday showed the annual growth rate of adjusted loans to the private sector increased to 4.1% in July from 3.8% previously. Adjusted loans to households rose to 3.1% from 3.0%, while loans to non-financial corporations advanced to 4.4% from 4.0%. Broader M3 money supply growth stood at 3.4%, in line with expectations and above the prior 3.3% reading.

Corporate loan growth was slightly above the ECB’s long-run average of 4.3%, as cited in its recent economic bulletin. This marked the first time in several years that the measure exceeded 4%, suggesting that tighter financial conditions have not materially impaired credit transmission. Household credit growth remained more modest, potentially reflecting higher mortgage rates. Although consumer confidence has improved somewhat recently, the ECB’s latest bank lending survey showed that banks have tightened lending standards, with generally lower risk tolerance toward household credit.

With short-term indicators pointing to a pickup in growth momentum and Q2 GDP surprising to the upside, the ECB is likely to be comfortable tightening policy again in September following its previous hike in June. However, some analysts caution that further tightening in financial conditions could weigh on loan demand.

What did he write on a blank piece of paper? In his last FOMC press conference on 29 July, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh stated ‘I look at it like a blank piece of paper right now. I have not begun consideration with the incredible team here what would go into that document’ when asked how he’d approach his speech at Jackson Hole.

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s remarks at the Jackson Hole symposium are scheduled today at 10:00 am EDT. Analysts are debating whether Warsh will seek to clarify his July FOMC remarks by reaffirming the 2.0% PCE inflation target and emphasising that interest rates remain the Fed’s primary policy tool, or whether he will instead focus on broader themes such as his task-force plans. Some observers see a dovish risk that he could reference recent softer inflation readings, although others argue there is little reason to expect him to shift away from his preference for saying less.

US Stock Indices

Dow Jones Industrial Average +0.20%
Nasdaq 100 +1.43%
S&P 500 +0.72%, with 1 of the 11 sectors of the S&P 500 down

Nvidia’s stronger-than-expected revenue guidance offered a measure of relief to investors who had grown cautious about the durability of the AI-driven market rally.

The combination of stronger results and positive guidance lifted Nvidia shares +8.74%, marking the stock’s largest one-day advance since April 2025 and driving gains across other companies linked to the AI infrastructure buildout. US equity indexes also moved higher, led by the Nasdaq Composite, which rose +1.57%. The S&P 500 gained +0.72%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average edged up +0.20%.

Technology remained the clear market leader, even as breadth was weak. 10 of the 11 S&P 500 sectors ended lower, while Information Technology advanced +3.40%, supported by Nvidia as well as strong AI-related results from CrowdStrike and Salesforce.

In corporate news, Wendy’s shares declined after Reuters reported that Nelson Peltz’s Trian Fund Management does not plan to pursue a take-private bid for the company.

Moderna said it plans to raise $2.0 billion through the sale of convertible senior notes due 2032, with an option to issue an additional $300 million. The proceeds are expected to support investment in the company’s cancer vaccine business and debt repayment.

Corporate Earnings Reports

Posted on Thursday, 27 August from The Pulse, our real-time AI-driven news tool. Available exclusively on the EXANTE Web Platform

Autodesk reported Q2 FY27 earnings: revenue $2.05bn (vs est $2.01bn, up +16% y/y), adjusted EPS $3.30 (vs est $3.12, up from $2.62 y/y). Adjusted operating margin was 41.0% (est 39.3%) and free cash flow $561mn, up +24% y/y. For Q3, the company guided revenue of $2.13bn–$2.14bn (above est $2.08bn) and adjusted EPS of $3.04–$3.09 (below est $3.14). Full-year FY27 guidance: revenue $8.30bn–$8.35bn (above est $8.21bn) and non-GAAP EPS $12.52–$12.60 (in line). The CEO stated that the guidance increase reflects higher growth expectations and the contribution from the MaintainX acquisition.

Best Buy reported Q2 FY27 results with revenue of $9.78bn (up +3.6% y/y) vs $9.59bn expected and adjusted EPS of $1.47 (up +15% y/y) vs $1.38 expected. Comparable sales rose +4.1%. The company raised its FY27 guidance: revenue to $42.3bn-$42.8bn, adjusted EPS to $6.70-$6.90, and comparable sales growth of +1.9% to +3.0%. Q3 comparable sales are expected between +1% and +3%. The CEO said the company outperformed expectations in the second quarter and raised annual guidance due to strong first-half performance and momentum entering the second half. Best Buy also declared a dividend of $0.96 per share and plans roughly $300mn in share buybacks for FY27.

Dollar Tree reported Q2 revenue of $4.9bn (vs $4.86bn expected), up +7% y/y, and adjusted EPS of $2.70, which included a $1.31 benefit from tariff refunds. Comparable store net sales rose +3.7%. Operating margin was 14.1%, expanding +900 bps y/y (including +650 bps from tariff refunds). For FY26, the company guided adjusted EPS of $7.70-$8.05 (vs $7.04 expected) and revenue of $20.5bn-$20.65bn. The Q3 outlook for adjusted EPS of $0.80-$0.95 was well below the $1.39 consensus, partly due to $0.50 in tariff refund reinvestments. The company returned $605mn via buybacks. The CEO noted positive traffic trends drove strong comparable sales growth.

Marvell Technology reported Q2 FY27 revenue of $2.74bn (vs $2.71bn expected) and adjusted EPS of $0.94 (vs $0.92). Data center revenue rose +46% y/y to $2.2bn. For Q3, it guided revenue of $3.15bn (vs $3.02bn) and adjusted EPS of $1.10 (vs $1.07). The CEO stated that FY27 revenue is now expected to be ~$12bn (+45% y/y) and FY28 revenue ~$18bn (+50% y/y), with custom chip revenue more than doubling in FY28. He added that revenue from the Google warrant agreement is already included in the custom revenue target.

Workday reported fiscal Q2 revenue of $2.65bn (est. $2.64bn), up +12.8% y/y. Adjusted EPS of $2.75 (est. $2.61) rose +24% y/y. Free cash flow fell -22% y/y to $460mn (est. $621mn). Subscription revenue backlog reached $9.03bn, up +14.2% y/y. Q3 guidance: subscription revenue of $2.52bn (+12% y/y) and non-GAAP operating margin of 30.0%. Full-year guidance raised: subscription revenue $9.94bn–$9.95bn (+13% y/y) and non-GAAP operating margin of 31.0%. Subscription revenue for the quarter was $2.47bn (+13.9% y/y). Net income was $632mn (est. $665mn). CEO commented that AI drove more than 25% of new ACV and over 5,500 customers now use at least one organic agent

Affirm reported FQ4’26 revenue of $1.17bn, up from an $1.11bn estimate, with GMV rising +36% y/y to $14.1bn. Adjusted operating income was $353mn, representing a 30% margin. GAAP operating income of $147mn beat a $120mn consensus. GAAP net income of $1.62bn included a $1.45bn income tax benefit, making the reported EPS of $4.62 not comparable to the $0.34 street consensus set without that benefit. Q1 FY’27 guidance calls for revenue of $1.19bn-$1.22bn (est. $1.16bn) and GMV of $13.7bn-$14.0bn.

European Stock Indices

CAC 40 -1.68%
DAX +0.31%
FTSE 100 -0.79%

Commodities

Gold spot +0.19% to $4,600.62 an ounce
Silver spot +1.81% to $69.33 an ounce
West Texas Intermediate +1.99% to $83.54 a barrel
Brent crude +2.41% to $89.57 a barrel

Gold prices advanced on Thursday, supported by a softer US dollar.

Spot gold was +0.19% higher at $4,600.62 per ounce, after settling -1.33% on Wednesday.

The US dollar eased, making dollar-denominated commodities more affordable for holders of other currencies.

Spot silver gained +1.81% to $69.33 per ounce.

Crude benchmarks closed higher for a second consecutive session on Thursday, extending intraday gains after the White House said there were no current negotiations with Iran. WTI and Brent also gained following media reports that the US President had told mediators the administration had no interest in returning to the June MoU terms.

Brent crude futures settled $2.11, or +2.41%, at $89.57 per barrel. US West Texas Intermediate crude futures finished $1.63, or +1.99%, at $83.54 per barrel.

Qatar's Prime Minister travelled to Tehran on Thursday. The two sides discussed a proposed framework that includes a temporary shipping corridor through the Strait of Hormuz and steps to reduce regional tensions.

Oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz are reportedly increasing. Traders involved in cargo activity told Bloomberg news that crude flows through the Strait are moving higher as producers raise exports despite Iran’s lingering threat to shipping. Approximately 6.0 million to 8.0 million bpd of crude is now being shipped through the Strait, roughly half of pre-war levels.

State-owned Kuwait Integrated Petroleum Industries had restarted all three crude units at its 615,000 barrel-per-day Al-Zour oil refinery at 60% capacity as of 19 August. The refinery had come under attack by Iranian drones in May.

Note: As of 4 pm EDT 27 August 2026

Currencies

EUR -0.01% to $1.1650
GBP -0.07% to $1.3580
Bitcoin +1.85% to $80,186.47
Ethereum +0.29% to $2,504.13

The dollar was roughly flat on Thursday, while attention moved towards a speech by Fed Chair Kevin Warsh at the Jackson Hole symposium.

The dollar index was broadly unchanged at 99.13. The euro slipped -0.01% to $1.1650. Sterling softened -0.07% to $1.3580.

Many market participants expect the Fed chair to refrain from offering any guidance on monetary policy.

As the Jackson Hole conference began, a trio of Fed officials, Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid, Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack and Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, voiced their concerns about the US inflation outlook.

The dollar strengthened +0.07% against the Japanese yen to ¥159.38 after BoJ Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino said timely rate hikes would help avoid an inflation spike that could require abrupt tightening later, while stopping short of signalling an imminent rate increase.

Fixed Income

US 10-year Treasury +2.4 basis points to 4.674%
German 10-year Bund +1.5 basis points to 3.268%
UK 10-year Gilt -1.8 basis points to 5.021%

US Treasury yields edged higher on Thursday.

According to the CME FedWatch tool, traders are pricing a 35.4% probability of a rate hike at the Fed’s 16 September meeting and 27.1 bps of additional rate hikes through the remainder of 2026.

The 2-year note yield, which typically tracks Fed funds rate expectations, rose +1.6 bps to 4.238%. The yield on US 10-year notes increased +2.4 bps to 4.674%.

The 2s10s yield curve steepened to 43.8 bps.

Data on Thursday showed that the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits fell for a second straight week while the overall number of people on jobless relief rolls slid to the lowest level in a month. This suggests the labour market remains stable despite a surprise drop in employment in July.

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics is scheduled to release today its preliminary annual payrolls revision for the year ending in March.

The Treasury saw solid demand for a $44 billion sale of 7-year notes on Thursday, the final sale of $183 billion in short- and intermediate-dated supply this week. The notes sold at a high yield of 4.512%, near where it was trading before the auction. Demand was slightly higher than average with the bid-to-cover ratio at 2.50x.

Eurozone bond yields rose slightly on Thursday.

Germany’s 10-year bond yield rose +1.5 bps to 3.268%, remaining close to a 15-year high. Two-year and 30-year yields rose +2.7 bps and +1.6 bps, respectively, to 2.861% and 3.758%.

Traders in money markets are pricing in roughly 44 bps of further monetary tightening from the ECB this year, little changed from Wednesday's close and broadly similar to pricing a week earlier.

France’s 10-year OAT yield was +2.5 bps higher at 4.107%, though it remained below last week’s 18-year high of 4.143%. Italy’s 10-year BTP yield advanced +1.9 bps to 4.072%, leaving the spread over German bunds at 80.4 bps.

Note: As of 4 pm EDT 27 August 2026

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